ZIPO dalili za wazi kwamba Marekani sasa inajipanga kuifanyia kitu mbaya Iran. Hali hiyo inatokana na ukweli kuwa Marekani katika si...
ZIPO dalili za wazi kwamba Marekani sasa inajipanga kuifanyia
kitu mbaya Iran.
Hali hiyo inatokana na ukweli kuwa Marekani katika siku za
karibuni imekuwa ikipeleka vifaa vita vingi katika eneo la Ghuba ya Uajemi.
Vifaa vita hivyo vimekuwa vikipelekwa kimya kimya.
Imeelezwa kuwa Marekani inapeleka vifaa hivyo katika kile
kinachodaiwa kujipanga kuzuia Iran kufunga mlango bahari wa Hormuz.
Aidha vifaa vita vilivyofikishwa karibu ni pamoja na ndege
vita ambazo zinauwezo wa kupiga ndani ya Iran kama mgogoro wa nyukilia
utaendelea kuwapo.
The deployments
are part of a long-planned effort to bolster the American military presence in
the gulf region, in part to reassure Israel that in dealing with Iran, as one
senior administration official put it last week, “When the president says there
are other options on the table beyond negotiations, he means it.”
But at a moment that the United States and its
allies are beginning to enforce a much broader embargo on Iran’s oil exports,
meant to force the country to take seriously the negotiations over sharply
limiting its nuclear program, the buildup carries significant risks, including
that Iran’s powerful Islamic
Revolutionary Guards Corps could decide to lash out against the increased
presence.
The most visible elements of this buildup are Navy
ships designed to vastly enhance the ability to patrol the Strait of Hormuz —
and to reopen the narrow waterway should Iran attempt to mine it to prevent
Saudi Arabia and other oil exporters from sending their tankers through the
vital passage.
¶ The Navy has doubled the
number of minesweepers assigned to the region, to eight vessels, in what
military officers describe as a purely defensive move.
¶ “The message to Iran is,
‘Don’t even think about it,’ ” one senior Defense Department official
said. “Don’t even think about closing the strait. We’ll clear the mines. Don’t
even think about sending your fast boats out to harass our vessels or
commercial shipping. We’ll put them on the bottom of the gulf.” Like others
interviewed, the official spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the
delicacy of the diplomatic and military situation.
¶ Since late spring,
stealthy F-22 and older F-15C warplanes
have moved into two separate bases in the Persian Gulf to bolster the combat
jets already in the region and the carrier strike groups that are on constant
tours of the area. Those additional attack aircraft give the United States
military greater capability against coastal missile batteries that could
threaten shipping, as well as the reach to strike other targets deeper inside
Iran.
¶ And the Navy, after a
crash development program, has moved a converted amphibious transport and
docking ship, the Ponce, into the Persian Gulf to serve as the Pentagon’s first
floating staging base for military operations or humanitarian assistance.
¶ The initial assignment
for the Ponce, Pentagon officials say, is to serve as a logistics and
operations hub for mine-clearing. But with a medical suite and helicopter deck,
and bunks for combat troops, the Ponce eventually could be used as a base for
Special Operations forces to conduct a range of missions, including
reconnaissance and counterterrorism, all from international waters.
¶ For President Obama, the combination
of negotiations, new sanctions aimed at Iran’s oil revenues and increased
military pressure is the latest — and perhaps the most vital — test of what the
White House calls a “two track” policy against Iran. In the midst of a
presidential election campaign in which his opponent, Mitt Romney, has accused
him of being “weak” in dealing with the Iranian nuclear issue, Mr. Obama seeks
to project toughness without tipping into a crisis in the region.
¶ At the same time he must
signal support for Israel, but not so much support that the Israelis see the
buildup as an opportunity to strike the Iranian nuclear facilities, which Mr.
Obama’s team believes could set off a war without significantly setting back
the Iranian program.
¶ A key motivation for “Olympic
Games,” the covert effort to undermine Iran’s enrichment capability with
cyberattacks, has been to demonstrate to the Israelis that there are more
effective ways to slow the program than to strike from the air.
¶ But this delicate
signaling to both Iran and Israel is a complex dance. Senator John Kerry, the
Massachusetts Democrat who is chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, said
that the administration must strike a fine balance between positioning enough
forces to deter Iran, but not inadvertently indicate to Iran or Israel that an
attack on Iran’s nuclear sites is imminent or inevitable.
¶ “There are a lot of expectations
to manage,” Mr. Kerry said in an interview. “People
need to know you’re serious, but you must also leave room for peaceful
resolution. It’s very important not to take steps that
send the wrong messages here.”
There is little evidence that the increased pressure is having
the desired effect. Negotiations with Iran are at a stalemate, though a group
of Iranian, American and European experts are expected to meet in Istanbul on
Tuesday to review a recent American proposal and Iranian response. So far, though,
Iran has strenuously resisted all efforts to force it to give up enrichment of
uranium, starting with production of a type that is considered relatively close
to bomb grade.
Responding to the
tightening of Western sanctions, Iran on Monday announced that it would
consider proposed legislation to disrupt traffic in the Strait of Hormuz as
well as missile tests, in a drill clearly intended as a warning to Israel and
the United States.
The Iranian legislation calls for Iran’s military
to block any oil tanker en route to countries no longer buying Iranian crude
because of the embargo. It was unclear whether the legislation would pass or
precisely how Iran would enforce it.
Senior Pentagon and military officials acknowledge
that Iran has the capability to close the strait, at least temporarily, and the
additional mine-clearing forces can be viewed as both concrete and spoken
evidence of Washington’s commitment to make sure any closing is as brief as
possible.
The most significant Iranian threat to shipping
came during its war of attrition with Iraq in the 1980s. Iran attacked tankers
and other commercial traffic to disrupt Iraq’s oil revenues and threaten
shipments from other Arab states viewed as supporting Baghdad. Iran also laid
significant numbers of mines in an attempt to block transit, prompting
mine-clearing operations and attacks on the Iranian Navy by American warships.
Defense Department officials stressed that the
recent reshaping of American forces in the Persian Gulf region should not be viewed
as solely about the potential nuclear threat from Iran.
“This is not only about Iranian nuclear ambitions,
but about Iran’s regional hegemonic ambitions,” the senior Defense Department
official said.
“This is a complex array of American military power
that is tangible proof to all of our allies and partners and friends that even
as the U.S. pivots toward Asia, we remain vigilant across the Middle East.”
While American ground troops have been withdrawn
from Iraq, a force equivalent to an extra Army combat brigade has remained in
Kuwait, officials said. It could have many roles to contain regional
instability, but Iran is a primary concern.
While it always is difficult to read Iran’s
intentions, senior American Navy officers have noted that Iranian ships in the
Persian Gulf have refrained recently from provocative behavior.
“Things have been, relatively speaking,
quiet,” said Adm. Jonathan W. Greenert, the chief of naval operations,
assessing actions by Iranian Navy vessels over “the last couple of months.”
But that was without the pressure of the
new sanctions; already Iran is exporting far less oil every day than a year
ago: about 1.5 million barrels a day versus 2.5 million before the gradual
imposition of earlier sanctions.
While Iranian vessels have avoided any
confrontations with allied warships in recent weeks, Iran expects to equip its
ships in the Strait of Hormuz soon with shorter-range missiles, a Revolutionary
Guards commander said on Friday, according to the semiofficial Mehr news agency.
With an eye on the threat of a belligerent
Iran, the administration is also seeking to expand military ties with the six
nations in the Gulf Cooperation Council: Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain,
Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Oman.
The United States and 19 other countries
will hold a major mine countermeasure exercise in the Persian Gulf in
September, said a senior military officer who noted that countries in the
region were taking more steps in their own defense, including buying
American-made air defense systems and other weaponry.
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